As we head into the second half of the 2011
season I thought it would be a good time to look at our handicaps and
see how we're doing in our quest for a better game. On the one
hand we have better equipment and more experience. On the other,
the course is definitely tougher (see previous notes on holes #6 &
7) and some of us had birthdays.
They say the average score for 18 holes is
around 100 and hasn't changed much in the last 20 years. But that
includes all those duffers - the ones who tee off on Friday afternoons
with coolers of beer, leave big divots and just don't have our skills -
right? True. Many of them don't keep handicaps - less than
20% of golfers do. The average USGA handicap index for active
golfers is 16.1 - average for The Saxony Club is 16.6. So not
bad. If it make you feel any better fully 10% of single
digit handicaps belong to golfers under 18 years old. Discounting
those kids makes our group better than average. Congrats -
But are we getting better?
I started with our indices at July
7, 2010 and followed them through to the latest update. In
our group of 57 golfers, 51 have had handicaps for the full year
and of those, 39 have posted more than 8 rounds in 2011. I
focussed on those 39.
We have
posted 587 rounds posted this year; an average of 15 games each.
One of us has 40 rounds in already and three others have posted
30+ scores. Our indices range from 4.7 to 26.8 - averaging 15.6.
Square in the middle (our median) is Joe Valenti at 15.7.
And, try as we might, we're a little worse than we were when
Saxon Woods opened last year.
Our average index has increased from 14.9
to 15.6. While that's less than a stroke overall the average
individual index has increased by more than 10%. Ouch. Does that
mean Hudson Hills in 2010 was easier than Saxon today? Feel free
to discuss.
By the way that change carries across all
levels - low, mid and high handicappers have all suffered. For the
visual thinkers I've put up a couple graphs showing trend by person
over time. Click here to view Low Index Medium Index High Index.

The
better players have slipped the farthest - those between 4 and 13 have
gone up 20% (sorry Andy and Hammer), while the rest of us are up 5%.
It's hard to stay good at this game.
Some have gone against the trend and
improved: 12 have lower indices than last year. Most
improved (in number of strokes) is our PBB Champion Peter Ennis who has
shed 2.1 strokes. (I'm sure a quiet word from Bob Price will fix
that quick enough.) At the other end of the scale, there is great
suffering - 5 have gained 3 strokes or more. May your swing
return soon.
How can we fix this disturbing slide?
A survey of 425,000 golfers published in the American
Journal of Statistics looked for the biggest influence on a
person's handicap - age? lessons? club membership? athleticism?
Answer: none of the above. They determined that the biggest
statistical correlation between a low handicap and a personal variable
was.... the age at which you started to play. The sooner you
picked up the game -the higher the liklihood that you are good.
Nothing we can do about that now. Second highest
correlation: frequency of play. That we can deal with. Third
was general athleticism - not fitness, but as measured by sports
participation throughout life. Hence our advice to improve:
Start young, be active AND PLAY MORE GOLF. That I can handle.